Have the markets already played out their dynamics before the economy has even properly taken off? Are we now destined for a period of mediocre returns despite a strong economy? asks Akash Prakash.
Stressing that economic growth will only move upwards, the Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday pegged the GDP growth rate for the next financial year at 10.5 per cent, though a tad lower than the government's projection of 11 per cent. The projection is in line with the estimates in the Union Budget 2021-22 presented in Parliament earlier this week. The Economic Survey, tabled by the government in Parliament recently, has projected that the economy will grow at 11 per cent, up from an estimated historic decline of 7.7 per cent in 2020-21, on account of the COVID-19 pandemic.
India will drive growth in the Asia-Pacific (Apac) region as the growth engine is likely to shift from China to South and Southeast Asia in the coming years, S&P Global Ratings said in a report on Tuesday. The rating agency's report projected China's growth to slow down to 4.6 per cent by 2026 from an estimated 5.4 per cent in 2023. India is likely to clock 7 per cent economic growth from 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023.
Growth has slowed in some of the large emerging economies, its interim economic assessment report added. "One factor has been a rise in global bond yields -- triggered in part by an expected scaling back of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing -- which has fuelled market instability and capital outflows in a number of major emerging economies, such as India and Indonesia.
pbeat on the prospects of India's foreign trade contributing majorly to the economy, the Economic Survey on Wednesday cautioned against the negative impact of hardening of global oil prices and volatility among major currencies on country's exports.
The 54-page document tabled in Parliament detailed how the Modi-government pull the economy from being counted among the most fragile-five in the world to being the fasted growing and the most attractive investment destination.
'Sweden removed the inheritance tax because many of the rich were fleeing. For example, the owner of IKEA had migrated out of Sweden'
Domestic policies rather than the global turmoil is what will really affect growth prospects.
Many believe that the surge in the markets defy economic reality and is being fuelled by aggressive monetary easing by central banks across the world.
As the Ukraine conflict impacts the global GDP, India is projected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2022, slower than the last year's 8.8 per cent but still the fastest-growing major economy, with higher inflationary pressures and uneven recovery of the labour market curbing private consumption and investment, according to a UN report. The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in its World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report released on Wednesday that the war in Ukraine has upended the fragile economic recovery from the pandemic, triggering a devastating humanitarian crisis in Europe, increasing food and commodity prices and globally exacerbating inflationary pressures. The global economy is now projected to grow by only 3.1 per cent in 2022, down from the 4.0 per cent growth forecast released in January 2022.
'Barring a temporary blip where stocks fell on verdict day, we are back to all-time highs.'
Macroeconomic data announcements, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key triggers for the domestic stock markets this week, analysts said. Last week, the benchmark indices joined the broader market's party despite a host of negative global cues. In the broader market, the BSE midcap and smallcap gauges hit their all-time highs on Friday.
'We need to do more to accelerate growth.'
The Reserve Bank's growth projection for next financial year is lower than 8-8.5 per cent projected by the finance ministry in the recent Economic Survey which was tabled in Parliament on January 31. Unveiling the bi-monthly policy, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, "Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels."
Sensex ended strong, Tata Steel, HUL climb higher.
Pragmatism and flexibility is a virtue. An untethered and short-term approach to policymaking is a flaw, argues Mihir S Sharma.
India's economic growth is expected to improve to 6.3 per cent in 2016 with the country leading economic recovery in South Asia, according to a United Nations report.
India will become the world's third largest economy by 2026 as its GDP in current dollar terms will reach $5 trillion in that year and further rise to $5.5 trillion in 2027, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Friday. Delivering the 18th C D Deshmukh Memorial Lecture titled 'India at 125: Reclaiming the Lost Glory and Returning the Global Economy to the Old Normal', he said it is unlikely that GDP in current dollar terms of either Germany or Japan will cross $5 trillion-mark in the coming three years. Japan will have to sustain a growth rate of 3.5 per cent in current dollar terms to reach $5.03 trillion in 2027 from its 2022 level of $4.2 trillion, he said.
Facing a layoff is fast becoming more and more a real prospect for many professionals. To keep your job, you need to work smart not and do whatever it takes to make sure you are crucial to your company.
A lot depends upon the crucial decision-making skills of the management. If you have any doubts about the management then you always have the choice of selling your shares or not buying stocks of those companies at all.
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
Global economy will have to grapple with few tough situations in 2015.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded from early lows to settle higher on Wednesday following buying in Reliance Industries, Larsen & Toubro and ITC and positive trends in Asian and European markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose by 173.22 points or 0.26 per cent to settle at 66,118.69. The index opened lower and fell further to a low of 65,549.96 in morning trade.
Indian economy is expected to grow at over 7.5 per cent, to overtake China.
The avoidable stresses and strains in ties helped in one way. It showed for the entire region how a matured India handled diplomatic relations, especially with a smaller and suspicious neighbour, with practised dignity and patience, unruffled by provocations in word, deed and action, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
India's services sector activity eased in August but growth rates for new orders remain elevated, as services firms indicated the sharpest upturn in new export business which acted as a catalyst for firms to expand their workforces as well as output, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. Despite falling from 62.3 in July to 60.1 in August, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index indicated one of the strongest increases in output seen since mid-2010. For the 25th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold.
In India, economic activity slowed substantially in 2019, with the deceleration most pronounced in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, whereas government-related services sub-sectors received significant support from public spending, the Bank said.
India's services sector growth eased to a three-month low in June but service providers continued to signal positive demand trends, which resulted in a stronger increase in new business volumes and further job creation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from 61.2 in May to 58.5 in June. Despite falling from May, the latest figure was consistent with a sharp pace of growth.
No country has achieved a faster, deeper modern transformation than China, says former ambassador Kishan S Rana.
India's real GDP growth is set to exceed 7 per cent for CY-2015.
India needs to sustain a GDP growth rate of 8 per cent to become a five trillion dollar economy by 2025, the Economic Survey has stated.
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
The just-concluded plenary session of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC), headed by Xi, adopted his proposals for the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035.
The world economy is projected to grow at an average rate of just over 3% per annum from 2011 to 2050, doubling in size by 2032.
Govt to strongly pitch for better rating, to argue India has successfully weathered its problems and govt capacity on growth remains high.
'The Opposition will continue to be attacked through misuse of agencies, civil society will be force-marched towards extinction and India's plummeting on global indices will continue.' 'Minorities and especially Muslims will continue to have open season declared on them. Institutions will continue their decline,' predicts Aakar Patel.
World Bank says India has bright prospects.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das has pitched for policy support from all sides -- fiscal, monetary and sectoral -- to nurture recovery of the economy hit by the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The dent on economic activity due to the second wave of the pandemic during April-May necessitated continuation of monetary measures to support the process of economic recovery to make it durable, Das had said while participating in the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) earlier in the month. "Overall, the second wave of COVID-19 has altered the near-term outlook, and policy support from all sides - fiscal, monetary and sectoral - is required to nurture recovery and expedite return to normalcy," Das said, as per the minutes of the meeting released on Friday.
As per the findings, CEOs are less optimistic about prospects this year.
Whether this remains under control in the coming months will depend on the future intensity and spread of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the effectiveness of the Indian government's response, points out A K Bhattacharya.
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